I think we’ve had a lot of posts breaking down this and that trendline of Bitcoin (and the majority probably come from me alone) but here’s one last one that ties it all together a bit. One of the most important trend-lines are the short-term and long-term holder cost bases, which show the cost basis for each of the short-term and long-term holders, meaning when the break even point may occur on-chain. data.

The real value is also one of the most popular and is simply calculated with on-chain data that shows the average price each person paid for their coin, divided by the total supply. Every bear market Bitcoin falls below those three and often uses them as resistance, those three are one of the most consistent indicators in Bitcoin history.


From Glassnode Onchain Insight

As we can see now after last month’s rally, we were able to break all three of those tops at once. The short-term holder base decreased first as it was sitting at $18.9k, followed by the actual value which was at $19.7k. Finally we also got the long-term holder cost base which was at $22.3k. Only three previous times in history had BTC broken above those three simultaneously, and each was a reversal from the corresponding bear market. In 2012, 2015 and 2018, now in 2023 as well.

To many those technicals may not mean much but at the end of the day you can get a general overview of how important this rally is, no typical bear market rally has been this high or at least not yet.

Submitted by /u/partymsl


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